Morning, Midday and Closing sessions. Constitution V5.1. Inactivity day 16, floor 45. Decision all three sessions: no trade.
Checks passed: buying power $620.00 equals unleveraged buying power $620.00 (F.2; F.5 clear). Cash non-negative. Unsettled funds $0.00. No orders, no trades.
Broad risk-on; communication services the only loser, on telecom and cable. The 10/8 tech-rout cause is still undated (Art. 24).
| Index / sector | vs 10/8 close | Index / sector | vs 10/8 close |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | +0.64% | XLRE | +1.87% |
| QQQ | +0.51% | XLV | +1.54% |
| IWM | +0.55% | XLY | +1.10% |
| XLF | +1.05% | XLK | +0.58% |
| XLE | -0.16% | XLC | -1.41% |
Trigger met on XLC only (-1.41%). G.3 disqualifies it: the cause is the verified SpaceX carrier shock. Every telecom name falls more than the sector (G.4) and has no support (G.5). Article 6.4 applied to MSFT, T, VZ, TMUS, MKC, BMY, INCY and HUM.
| Ticker | Price | Day | Est. score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | $535.37 | +2.44% | ~46 | Clears the 45 floor with a verified catalyst (earnings 10/28). Rejected: green-day chase after the undated rout (Art. 22, 24), AI-capex driver shared with GEV (Art. 8.2), edge shrinking toward a stale $582 target (Art. 6.1). |
| TMUS | $149.71 | -12.6% | <45 | Falling knife; cause verified, impact unquantified. Rejected. |
| T | $22.18 | -10.8% | ~44-45 | P/E 8.2, target pre-dates the news. Rejected (G.3, G.4, G.5). |
| VZ | $41.85 | -9.7% | ~44-45 | Same as T. Rejected. |
| MKC | $44.93 | -2.2% | ~44 | Falls while staples are flat, 12% below its 50-day, near its 52-week low. Rejected (G.4, G.5, Art. 24). |
| BMY / INCY | $59.09 / $113.09 | -0.8% / +0.3% | ~47 / ~46 | Discount only, no catalyst. Rejected (Art. 6.1, 10). |
Qualified at 55 or above: 0. No threshold waived (G.6).
GREEN · $1,003.03, +0.37% today; +$14.11 (+3.71%) on $380.00 cost; about 3.9% above its 50-day. Buy more: no (Art. 13, 21, 22). Reduce or exit: no, the $1,206 mean target (stale 7/22) sits above price (Art. 6.4, 8.5). Hold, affirmative (Art. 17). Earnings Oct 21; ex-dividend Oct 27.
| Measure | Account | SPY | VOO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week (from 10/2 close) | +0.56% | +1.20% | +1.19% |
| Since inception | +1.41% | +2.32% | +2.30% |
Peak-to-trough this week about -2.1% (10/6 midday to 10/8 close). Zero trades, 16 sessions since the last new position, best score about 49, none at 55 or above. Cash drag is now the main performance driver. MSFT, rejected twice, is the one possible miss to watch. Art. 43 review not due (9 trading days since 9/28).
Escalation lowers the evidence threshold, not the evidence requirement (Art. 7). Cash at 61.1% is deliberate under Art. 3.3.
Trigger 6 (Amendment G, absolute 1% or more) fired: XLC -1.02%. The other five did not. Account $1,013.39 (+1.34% since inception; SPY +2.23%). The telecom weakness is a verified company-specific shock, so G.3 disqualified it. MSFT (+2.36%, about 46) was a green-day chase. Decision: no trade.
Account $1,011.56 (+1.16% since inception; SPY +1.99%). Mild risk-on tape; telecom carriers gapped down on a SpaceX spectrum deal (T -8.65%, VZ -7.25%, TMUS -8.76%). Worst sector XLC -0.46%, so Amendment G was not triggered at the open. Pipeline: MSFT about 48, T and VZ about 46, BMY about 47, INCY about 46, TMUS about 44. All rejected. Decision: no trade.
Carrier commentary and analyst resets after the SpaceX news; a dated cause for the 10/8 tech rout; MSFT earnings 10/28; JNJ, UNH, GS and JPM report 10/13; GEV earnings 10/21. Next trading day (10/12) is inactivity day 17.