TTA Market Report
Decision (latest: Closing)
Best candidate MSFT scores about 50. It passes the beta and 50-day checks, but the cause of the selloff is unverified, it sits at its session low into the close, earnings land 10/28, and nothing reaches the normal 55. Cash of 63% is deliberate (Art. 3.3).
CLOSING SESSION · quotes 19:31 UTC
Market regime
Broad selloff that deepened through the day: deepest in tech, communications and small caps, with energy, utilities and staples bid. Confidence medium-low: searches for a dated cause returned nothing verifiable (Art. 24).
| Index / sector | Open | Midday | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | +0.04% | -0.73% | -1.19% |
| QQQ | -0.66% | -1.73% | -2.51% |
| IWM | +0.12% | -1.43% | -1.67% |
| XLK | -1.09% | -2.16% | -2.84% |
| XLC | +0.14% | -1.25% | -2.13% |
| XLE | +1.16% | +1.89% | +2.27% |
| XLU | +0.26% | +1.15% | +1.21% |
| XLP | +1.10% | +0.91% | +0.86% |
Amendment G: triggered all three sessions
XLK fell 1.09%, 2.16% and 2.84%. The dip screen ran each time with no threshold waiver (G.6). Close readings:
| Name | Move | x XLK | vs 50d | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | -2.50% | 0.88x | +4.2% | G.4, G.5 pass; G.3 unconfirmed |
| QCOM | -2.73% | 0.96x | -0.7% | G.5 fail (was pass at midday) |
| NVDA | -1.05% | 0.37x | -3.7% | G.5 fail |
| AVGO / AMD / MU / ORCL | -4.1 / -5.2 / -5.0 / -4.7% | 1.5-1.8x | below | G.4 fail |
| TSM | -2.07% | 0.73x | -4.8% | G.3 (reported 10/15) |
New names from the closing quality scan (NTNX, BX, SCHW, IBKR, CMG) were not macro dips or lacked a thesis; none reached a scoreable case.
Why MSFT is not bought
- Cause unverified: no dated macro or MSFT-specific cause found, so G.3 cannot be confirmed (Art. 24).
- Support untested: it trades at the session low into the close, with the selloff still accelerating.
- Valuation: 29.7x P/E; mean target $594.70 (+13%) is stale (10/3) and there is no historical range for Art. 6.4.
- Catalyst and overlap: earnings 10/28 are binary, and the AI-capex link to GEV is partial (Art. 8.2).
What would change it: a dated macro cause, a close above the 50-day average (504.95), and a catalyst case beyond a stale target discount.
Pipeline
| Ticker | Score | Why not |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ~50 | See above; Art. 6.1, 24 |
| TXN | ~45 | 43x P/E; binary earnings 10/21; Art. 6.1, 10 |
| REGN | ~45 | Stale target; earnings 10/30 |
| NVDA | ~44 | Below 50d; shares GEV driver (Art. 8.2) |
| QCOM | ~44 | Below 50d; weak sentiment |
Thesis health: GEV YELLOW
$924.00, -0.26% on a day tech fell 2.8%; -4.46% vs $967.13 cost; 36.9% of the account. No GEV-specific news verified.
- Reduce/exit: no (no broken thesis, no valuation premium; Art. 6.4, 34, 10).
- Buy more: no (Art. 13, 21, 8.2).
- Hold: yes, affirmative (Art. 17), with an Art. 12 caution: the case leans on a 7/22 target and absence of bad news. Earnings 10/21 are the next real evidence; ex-dividend 10/27.
Portfolio (close)
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Total | $983.05 |
| Cash | $620.00 (63.07%) |
| Invested | $363.05 (36.93%) |
| Day vs 10/15 mark ($983.29) | -$0.24 (-0.02%) vs SPY -1.19% |
| Since start | -1.70% vs SPY +0.18%; trails about 1.9 pp |
Buying power $620.00 equals unleveraged buying power (F.2 passed, F.5 clear). Unsettled $0.00. No open orders.
Weekly review (Art. 42): Oct 12-16
| 10/9 basis | 10/16 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Account | $1,014.11 | $983.05 | -3.06% |
| SPY | $778.57 | $762.62 | -2.05% |
| VOO | $715.59 | $700.995 | -2.04% |
| GEV | $1,004.73 | $924.00 | -8.03% |
- Drawdown: week low $973.46 (10/15), -5.7% from the 10/6 high; below the 10% review line (Art. 20).
- Concentration: 37% in one AI-power name; most dip candidates share its driver (Art. 8.2).
- Activity: 0 trades; 21 trading days without a new position. Best score of the week about 50, none at 55.
- Quality (Art. 36): outcome negative, driven by GEV; the no-trade and hold decisions were documented and defensible; process was weaker, with lean scans and an unverified selloff cause.
- Lesson: the screens skew to beaten-down tech, so the pipeline mirrors the holding. Widen to energy, utilities, staples and health care.
Constitutional review (Art. 43)
No change to the constitution (Art. 38). The 45 floor is met by score most days; the evidence requirement, not the number, blocks trades, which is how it is written. Cash is deliberate; the cost this week was concentration. Scoring shows no gaming. Execution checks passed every session. Watch items: universe breadth (a process fix) and the GEV hold leaning on stale evidence. Next review about 11/6.
MIDDAY SESSION · quotes 16:48 UTC
Why the midday check ran
Trigger 6 (Amendment G, absolute 1%+) fired: XLK -2.16%, QQQ -1.73%, IWM -1.43%. The acceleration trigger did not (SPY -0.77 pp, QQQ -1.07 pp beyond the open). GEV moved +0.27%, so no position trigger. No data anomaly.
Regime: risk-off in tech and AI, defensives and energy bid. Confidence medium-low (Art. 24).
Amendment G dip screen (midday)
| Name | Move | x XLK | vs 50d | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | -2.04% | 0.94x | +4.6% | G.4, G.5 pass; G.3 unconfirmed |
| QCOM | -0.88% | 0.41x | +1.2% | G.4, G.5 pass; weak sentiment |
| NVDA | -0.39% | 0.18x | -3.0% | G.5 fail |
| AVGO | -3.16% | 1.46x | -9.3% | G.4, G.5 fail |
| AMD | -3.74% | 1.73x | +0.9% | G.4 fail; 146x P/E |
| MU | -3.79% | 1.75x | -8.9% | G.4, G.5 fail |
| TSM | -1.58% | 0.73x | -4.4% | G.3 (reported 10/15) |
Midday account $984.96 (+0.17% on the day vs SPY -0.73%). Decision: NO TRADE, same reasons as above.
MORNING SESSION · quotes 13:35 UTC
Decision
No candidate reaches the Day 4+ floor of 45 with real evidence, and none reaches the normal 55. Best score was about 45.
Market regime
Tech weak while the broad index was flat. Financials, staples and energy were bid. Confidence: medium.
| Index / sector | Change vs 10/15 close |
|---|---|
| SPY | +0.04% |
| QQQ | -0.66% |
| IWM | +0.12% |
| DIA | +0.52% |
| XLK | -1.09% |
| XLP | +1.10% |
| XLF | +1.19% |
| XLV | +0.38% |
| XLE | +1.16% |
Amendment G dip screen (morning)
Trigger met: XLK -1.09%. Screen run with no threshold waiver (G.6).
| Name | Move | x XLK | 50d SMA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | -1.92% | 1.8x | 434.48 | G.3 (reported 10/15), G.5 fail |
| MU | -3.42% | 3.1x | 983.17 | G.4, G.5 fail |
| NVDA | -0.57% | 0.5x | 223.17 | G.4 pass, G.5 fail |
| NXPI | -1.10% | 1.0x | 230.23 | G.4 pass, G.5 fail |
| TXN | -1.42% | 1.3x | 272.34 | G.4 marginal fail, G.5 pass |
Checks
- Account verified at all three sessions; F.2 passed, F.5 clear; unsettled $0.00 (Amendment D); Amendment B respected.
- Amendment G and Article 6.4 both applied (P/E and analyst-target references only, so valuation credit stayed modest).
- Inactivity: day 21, floor 45, Day 7 review passed. Next trading day 10/19 is day 22.